Big XII Conference Tournament Scenarios

K-State's blowout of KU gets a little better every day. After this Saturday's win against Mizzou, K-State looks to be in solid position to secure the fourth bye in the Big 12(-2) tournament (the other three going to KU, UT, and A&M). While the victory over Kansas seemed to give K-State the confidence and direction that kicked off their recent resurgence, it's looking like the game will be a major factor down the road. Here's how the tiebreaker scenario breaks down:

Kansas State and Missouri are both sitting at 8-6 in conference with games left against Texas and Iowa State for K-State, while Mizzou finishes at Nebraska and against KU. Smart money would be for both to finish the season 1-1, tying for fourth in the conference at 9-7. The first tiebreaker, head-to-head, was split as both teams held serve at home and bifurcated the season series.

The next tiebreaker is record against divisional opponents. Kansas State is currently 5-4 in the division, with a game left against Iowa State. A win would leave the Wildcats at 6-4. Missouri sits at 5-3. Assuming they beat Nebraska and fall to Kansas, they would also end the season going 6-4 in the division. Another tie.

The next tiebreaker is record against the DIVISIONAL leader(s). If KU beats Missouri, Mizzou would be 0-2 against the Division Leader. K-State finished 1-1 against KU. So although a win against Texas would be awesome given NCAA seeding implications, it may not be necessary to beat out Missouri in conference. Things are looking up*.

A look at season standings at the time of publication:



*Note: If Mizzou beats KU but loses to Nebraska and both schools are 1-1 against Kansas, the next tiebreaker would be record against the next best school in the division, and so on. This looks to be Nebraska or Colorado. K-State went 0-2 against the Buffs and 2-0 against Nebraska. We need Nebraska to place 4th in the Division and CU 5th. These schools finish the season against each other in a matchup of the traitors. As sickening as it may seem, there's a chance we'll be rooting for Big Red on March 5. Assuming there's a benevolent God, this situation will not manifest itself.

My Metaphors Flow Like Traffic on the Turnpike.

K-State hasn’t beaten anyone good this year. 12-4 Washington State is probably the best win, with Virginia Tech and Gonzaga (both currently 12-5) in the mix. None are ranked. In fact, we’re losing to teams that aren’t that good. Take Florida, who’s best win is over Tennessee (haha – see what I did there?); even teams from a crappy SEC are beating them. Some are calling for the team to refrain from panicking. Personally, I say fucking panic like the roof is on fire.

The Wildcats have fallen from a lofty perch, going from #3 in the nation to 0-2 in conference play. This would understandable (though not excusable) if the conference season started with trips to Lawrence and Waco. It didn’t. It kicked off with a loss to Okie State, followed by a home loss to Colorado. COLORADO! The Buffs got their first victory over a ranked team on the road last night in fourteen years. That losing streak is older than R. Kelly’s next hookup.

Pullen is now on the record as saying he wouldn’t play in the NIT. Once players start thinking NIT, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. After Saturday’s game against Texas Tech the schedule goes: @ Mizzou; @ A&M; vs. Baylor; @ KU. (Aggievillage idiot) Curtis Kelly will make his return against the Red Raiders, and many hope this presence will right the ship. For my sake, I hope it does. Unfortunately, I’m not confident Kelly will ever get his act together, and it’s hard to have faith in a team that claims this is the key to success. Jimmer Fredette or Jared Sullinger being the difference between success and failure I’ll buy. But if Curtis Kelly is your linchpin for victory, you’ve got some serious foundation problems. If the Wildcats were stock, you’d short this in a heartbeat. At least Wichita State is providing some excitement this year. Of course, I refuse to get too high on the Shockers again this year - they’ve broken my heart more times than Stanley Lynch, Benmont Tench, Mike Campbell, and Ron Blair.


(family friendly version)

The Clemente Effect

I'm taking K-State's loss to Florida on Saturday pretty hard, and postpone sleep while thinking what-if. What if Dennis Clemente had one more year of eligibility, how great would the Wildcats be?

I haven't been sold on this team since watching them play. I bought into the preseason hype, but they looked good (not great) against Virginia Tech, ditto against Gonzaga. Then they looked shitty against Duke. Didn't watch'em again during their string of second-tier victories before the Florida game, but game reviews painted their accomplishments as pedestrian. People bemoan the rebounding and grittiness advantage that was on greater display last year, but I look more closely at what Pullen has done.

The point guard just isn't scoring points like he used to. His shooting percentage has been downright atrocious, with games such as 1/12 against Duke, 5/17 against Loyola Chicago, and 2/11 against Washington. He's getting more steals and rebounds while committing fewer personal fouls this season, but just doesn't look as good as last year. Why? The answer lies somewhere over in Israel.

I believe Clemente was that instrumental to K-State's success last year. The NBA didn't want him because he simply couldn't provide that killer scoring threat - instead, he was an enabler. He was quick, had excellent vision, and created. This is what great guards do, and without that, Pullen is having a hard time transitioning into his new role.

We could also call this the CJ Effect, because it happened first and is much starker in every respect. CJ Lee's last year at Michigan, he wiggled into a starting role, earned a first-round upset, and almost beat out Blake Griffin's Sooners for a Sweet Sixteen birth. CJ didn't put up 20-point games. Didn't have to. He brought that leadership, vision, intangible blend that makes wins. Everyone in the Ford School agreed; the difference between 2008-09's Big 10 wins and 2009-10's let down was the lack of an enabler. And the Ford School knows - we almost won a game in intramurals (we're impartial AND know the game).

End of the day, K-State lost a lot more that 16 points/game when Clemente left. Even if you disregard what he did on the defensive end (which was a lot), his presence allowed Pullen to thrive. Now he's struggling. And that's got me a little nervous headed into conference play. Yes, we need our bigs to man up - but we need a creator even more.

The measure of a players greatness shouldn't be measured by his scorecard, but what his team accomplishes. Unless he's a runner. Then it's just what he accomplishes.


(Growing my Pullen Beard in 2009)

180º Role Reversals

The ACC/Big 10(+2) Challenge is officially on, and the Big 12(-2)/Pac 10(+2) Hardwood Series is coming soon. The Big 12(-2) has done pretty well over the course of the four year series - particularly last year when it won 9-3, but let one slip away as A&M fell to Washington following a freak broken leg suffered by guard Derrick Roland (42 seconds in - not for the squeamish).




Unfortunately, this series is coming to an end, though we'll refrain from calling sour grapes resulting from the squabbles of this past summer. What I what to see is a full bore, Big East/SEC challenge. In football and basketball. The Big East would go 1-7 in the fall, with Vanderbilt providing the fodder to prevent a skunk. Then, an equally embarrassing record would befall the SEC's basketball teams on the hardwood.

I do envision one major obstacle to this set up. It's not ratings - people would watch Florida/Georgetown or LSU/UConn. More problematic is getting every SEC school to schedule at least one BCS team in football. Burn.

$ Can't Buy Poll Love

Fingers remain pointed surrounding the breakdown of the Big 12(-2) over the summer, with many still keyed on Texas. The big bad bullies down south were too greedy, wanted too much money. CU and Nebraska had no desire to live in a conference of such disparity (for good reason - who will compete with the already dominant program). With that in mind, let's examine the Longhorns' current standings in the polls: ....

That's right, sitting at a sad 3-2, UT finds itself as one of those 'other team receiving votes.' Additionally, preseason BB rankings came out today. And how high does the proud program find itself? Wait - nowhere.

There's a second wrinkle of succulent irony in the preseason rankings. As much of a brouhaha that has been made about the Big 12(-2) North not being able to compete with the South, ESPN suggests otherwise. While 3 North teams are in the top 15, only Baylor (#17) from the South managed to wiggle into the rankings. That's right, the privately funded and low-budget Bears are responsible for representing all the big boys with oil money from Oklahoma and Texas. Is competing in basketball the equivalent to competing in football? No. But in Texas's case, they don't seem to be competing much in either (check games 1 and 4).