Fantasy Football Running Back Success by Division

Fantasy football is a simple game that too many people over-complicate in trying to get clever. One of the most egregious examples of this (and one that I, too, fall victim to) is playing the match up rather than the player. Great players will typically get theirs, so sitting a running back just because he has to go to Seattle will only leave you saddened by trying to guess some level of production from the committee in Tennessee. Even so, it's worth taking a look at the match ups in 2016 to gauge the marginal worth of players against each other.

The AFC North was far and away the toughest division to start running backs against. And when you look at the defenses in the North (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh), even the casual fan is left unsurprised. Similarly, the NFC East was awful, and running backs scored more fantasy points per game against the likes of the Giants and Redskins.

The chart below contains the average rushing, receiving, and total scores a defense gave up against all running backs, as well as the net scores (which accounts for fumbles). Fumbles are not included in the rushing and receiving columns - simply yardage and touchdowns. The net score is what determines your final score at the end of the day, so that's the number we're primarily interested in.

Running Back Points Allowed, by Division (Standard Scoring)
Division	Rushing	Receiving	Gross Average	Net Scores
AFC North	11.2	5.0	16.2	13.9
NFC West	12.0	5.6	17.6	15.4
NFC North	12.8	5.2	18.0	15.7
AFC East	11.8	5.5	17.4	15.7
AFC West	12.4	5.5	17.9	15.7
AFC South	12.8	5.2	18.0	15.8
NFC South	13.1	6.6	19.6	17.2
NFC East	14.8	6.2	21.0	18.7

I don't play in a ppr league and typically ignore these stat lines, but some people do, and there are some major differences once receptions are accounted for. The AFC East drops from number 4 against running backs to dead last, which shouldn't come as a complete surprise us as we see the division did well against the run but gave up more points to running backs through the air. 

The NFC West also takes a tumble, dropping from number two to number six. The knock against the Cardinals (and to an extent, the Seahawks) all season was that although they defended the run well, they couldn't contain screen passes, and this seems to reinforce that notion. Otherwise, the AFC North is still the best, the NFC South is still awful, and everyone else falls somewhere in between.

Running Back Points Allowed, by Division (1 PPR)
Division	Rushing	Receiving	Gross Average	Net Scores
AFC North	11.2	9.7	20.9	18.7
NFC North	12.8	10.6	23.4	20.3
AFC East	11.8	9.9	21.8	20.5
AFC South	12.8	10.4	23.2	20.5
AFC West	12.4	11.1	23.5	21.1
NFC West	12.0	11.3	23.3	21.1
NFC South	13.1	12.2	25.3	23.3
NFC East	14.8	12.0	26.8	24.3

What are the practical impacts of this? Running backs matched up against NFC East opponents should, as a general rule, fair better than those pitted against the AFC North. Here are the intra- and interleague match-ups for 2016:

Intraconference	Interleague
AFC North vs. AFC East	AFC East vs. NFC West
AFC South vs. AFC West	AFC North vs. NFC East
NFC North vs. NFC East	AFC South vs. NFC North
NFC South vs. NFC West	AFC West vs. NFC South

Using standard scoring, it's immediately obvious which two divisions are going to run into brick walls this year: AFC East teams are matched up against the #1 and #2 divisions from 2015. Given the uncertainty at the position in the East anyway (is Forte entering into a shares situation in New York? What will McCoy's legal status be? Can Ajayi establish himself in Miami? Have you been satisfied drafting a Patriots running back), I'm steering clear. NFC East teams aren't much better, going against the #1 & #3 divisions from last year. That division has almost as much uncertainty (frankly, I'm not touching the backfields for the Giants, Dallas, or Washington this year), and the sledding is equally rough.

Conversely, the NFC West, AFC North, AFC West, and NFC North all avoid the top tier of divisions while being paired with at least one of the two worst. Not that I think you should should buy into the running back situation in Detroit, but I'm a little less frightened of Eddie Lacy.

Division	Intraleague Opponent	Interleague Opponent	Combined Ranking
AFC East	1	2	3
NFC East	3	1	4
NFC South	2	5	7
AFC South	5	3	8
NFC West	7	4	11
AFC North	4	8	12
AFC West	6	7	13
NFC North	8	6	14

If you've gotten this far, you may be asking why I looked at divisional strength, rather than just examining strength of schedules. SOS demonstrates the difficulty of every team on the schedule and should be the way we determine these matters. The first answer is that I was interested in looking at Divisions, because they're easier to manage than a list of 32 teams. The second is I didn't realize that would have been smarter until an hour into this analysis, and by then I was too far gone. You're welcome.