Do Running Quarterbacks Have Greater Value in 4 Point Passing Touchdown Leagues?

About once a week I listen to a fantasy football podcast, and inevitably an observation is made about Mobile Quarterback X being preferred in a league that only allows four points per touchdown pass because some of their touchdowns will come on the ground. This comment always sounded ridiculous to me - why would anyone draft according to this difference in the point system? You shouldn't be drafting one quarterback over another quarterback based on the potential that you could win by two points in a given week - you should draft the quarterback that consistently nets you the most points. And two points here or there in one system that you don't accrue in another shouldn't be enough to change that, right?

My assumption was this was the case, but the truth is a bit murkier. For my analysis, I used the basic scoring system (0.04 points per passing yard, 0.1 points per rushing yard, -2 points per interception)*, and opted not to include any bonuses for certain milestones (e.g., no extra points for exceeding 300 yards passing).

*I had a hard time pulling fumble data and ultimately left it out, but hopefully this shouldn't change things too much.

Here are the season and per game point totals for the top 34 quarterbacks in a 4 point per passing touchdown scoring system:

Quarterback	End of Season Rank - 4 Pt Per Passing TD
	Total Points	Season Rank	PPG	PPG Rank

Cam Newton	397.1	1	24.8	1
Tom Brady	344.1	2	21.5	2
Blake Bortles	324.1	4	20.3	5
Russell Wilson	342.3	3	21.4	3
Carson Palmer	313.2	5	19.6	8
Drew Brees	310.5	6	20.7	4
Philip Rivers	295.5	8	18.5	11
Aaron Rodgers	294.4	10	18.4	13
Kirk Cousins	295.4	9	18.5	12
Eli Manning	284.5	12	17.8	15
Ryan Fitzpatrick	289.2	11	18.1	14
Matthew Stafford	301.2	7	18.8	10
Jameis Winston	276.8	13	17.3	17
Derek Carr	275.3	14	17.2	18
Andy Dalton	260.5	17	20.0	6
Ryan Tannehill	241.9	19	15.1	27
Tyrod Taylor	267.2	16	19.1	9
Matt Ryan	270.2	15	16.9	20
Alex Smith	248.1	18	15.5	26
Jay Cutler	234.5	20	15.6	24
Ben Roethlisberger	212.2	21	17.7	16
Sam Bradford	200.9	24	14.4	29
Teddy Bridgewater	204.4	23	12.8	30
Marcus Mariota	205.9	22	17.2	19
Joe Flacco	163.9	26	16.4	22
Brian Hoyer	170.6	25	15.5	25
Blaine Gabbert	130.8	29	16.4	23
Andrew Luck	140.2	27	20.0	7
Josh McCown	131.7	28	16.5	21
Brock Osweiler	118.8	30	14.8	28
Nick Foles	91.4	34	8.3	34
Peyton Manning	98.1	33	9.8	33
Johnny Manziel	110.2	31	12.2	31
Colin Kaepernick	101.0	32	11.2	32

Here's that same table, with six points per passing touchdown:

Quarterback	End of Season Rank - 6 Pt Per Passing TD
	Total Points	Season Rank	PPG	PPG Rank
Cam Newton	467.1	1	29.2	1
Tom Brady	416.1	2	26.0	2
Blake Bortles	394.1	4	24.6	5
Russell Wilson	410.3	3	25.6	3
Carson Palmer	383.2	5	24.0	6
Drew Brees	374.5	6	25.0	4
Philip Rivers	365.5	7	22.8	9
Aaron Rodgers	358.4	9	22.4	11
Kirk Cousins	353.4	10	22.1	12
Eli Manning	342.5	12	21.4	15
Ryan Fitzpatrick	351.2	11	22.0	13
Matthew Stafford	363.2	8	22.7	10
Jameis Winston	320.8	14	20.0	20
Derek Carr	339.3	13	21.2	16
Andy Dalton	308.5	16	23.7	7
Ryan Tannehill	283.9	19	17.7	27
Tyrod Taylor	307.2	17	21.9	14
Matt Ryan	310.2	15	19.4	21
Alex Smith	298.1	18	18.6	25
Jay Cutler	276.5	20	18.4	26
Ben Roethlisberger	254.2	21	21.2	17
Sam Bradford	238.9	23	17.1	29
Teddy Bridgewater	232.4	24	14.5	30
Marcus Mariota	243.9	22	20.3	18
Joe Flacco	191.9	26	19.2	22
Brian Hoyer	208.6	25	19.0	24
Blaine Gabbert	160.8	28	20.1	19
Andrew Luck	164.2	27	23.5	8
Josh McCown	151.7	29	19.0	23
Brock Osweiler	138.8	30	17.3	28
Nick Foles	109.4	34	9.9	34
Peyton Manning	112.1	33	11.2	33
Johnny Manziel	122.2	31	13.6	31
Colin Kaepernick	115.0	32	12.8	32

If you waded through that for more than 30 seconds, good on you I guess. I can't/hate doing tables in html and simply copy/pasted those into blogspot's unforgiving system (when I was publishing regularly we used Wordpress, which was actually user-friendly on this front). Here's one more table for you, which is the one you want:

Quarterback   Differential  Season Points  PPG   Season Rank   PPG Rank  Cam Newton 70 4.4 0 0 Tom Brady 72 4.5 0 0 Blake Bortles 70 4.4 0 0 Russell Wilson 68 4.3 0 0 Carson Palmer 70 4.4 0 -2 Drew Brees 64 4.3 0 0 Philip Rivers 70 4.4 -1 -2 Aaron Rodgers 64 4.0 -1 -2 Kirk Cousins 58 3.6 1 0 Eli Manning 58 3.6 0 0 Ryan Fitzpatrick 62 3.9 0 -1 Matthew Stafford 62 3.9 1 0 Jameis Winston 44 2.8 1 3 Derek Carr 64 4.0 -1 -2 Andy Dalton 48 3.7 -1 1 Ryan Tannehill 42 2.6 0 0 Tyrod Taylor 40 2.9 1 5 Matt Ryan 40 2.5 0 1 Alex Smith 50 3.1 0 -1 Jay Cutler 42 2.8 0 2 Ben Roethlisberger 42 3.5 0 1 Sam Bradford 38 2.7 -1 0 Teddy Bridgewater 28 1.8 1 0 Marcus Mariota 38 3.2 0 -1 Joe Flacco 28 2.8 0 0 Brian Hoyer 38 3.5 0 -1 Blaine Gabbert 30 3.8 -1 -4 Andrew Luck 24 3.4 0 1 Josh McCown 20 2.5 1 2 Brock Osweiler 20 2.5 0 0 Nick Foles 18 1.6 0 0 Peyton Manning 14 1.4 0 0 Johnny Manziel 12 1.3 0 0 Colin Kaepernick 14 1.6 0 0

The top four QBs last year were ranked the same regardless of the scoring system. This is unsurprising - Newton, Brady, et. al. were putting up such gaudy numbers that a couple points here and there didn't matter. As the seventh best quarterback, Philip Rivers was ranked one position lower over the season, and two positions lower in points per game played, in a four point scoring system. Rivers did not have any rushing touchdowns, so a QB with rushing touchdown potential had a marginally better shot at surpassing him. Kirk Cousins, with his five rushing touchdowns actually finishes a tenth of a point behind Rivers in this system. However, in a six point per touchdown league, Rivers finishes 22 points ahead of Cousins.

Among the largest changes, Matt Ryan is ranked five spots higher in a six point per passing TD league (however, you should still never draft Ryan). Derek Carr and Andy Dalton both drop three spots in this system. This underlines a more important aspect that's never discussed: four point leagues don't simply place a premium on rushing touchdowns, but overall yards also become more important. Both Carr and Dalton had a low passing yards:passing touchdowns ratio compared to other quarterbacks, and their low yardage made them less valuable in four point leagues.

So should the scoring system impact your draft strategy? Possibly, but only on the margins, and not like you may think. It should only used to differentiate similar quarterbacks in the same tier (you can use it as an excuse to give Tyrod Taylor a bump over a Jay Cutler. Not a Drew Brees). And while mobile quarterbacks may be more important, equally if not more so is a quarterback that projects for a lot of yards (possibly QBs on bad teams that won't necessarily get you touchdowns, but will pass a lot trying to overcome deficits, a la Blake Bortles last year).

More important than those points is when you should draft a quarterback at all. QB1s scored 50-70 points more in six point TD leagues over the course of the season. The question isn't whether you should draft Brees or Newton based on the scoring system - it's whether you should draft a QB or snag a running back. Because in a four point per passing touchdown league, that question pushes both players back about two rounds for me.