Tuesday, May 15, 2012

How Close was ‘Close?’


The AFC West was hands down the most unexceptional division in the NFL last year, with three teams going 8-8 and the Chiefs dragging tail at 7-9. Such density of mediocrity suggests even the last-place team was a bounce or two away from winning not just the West, but landing among the playoff elite (and no, one inexplicable win against the Steelers did not make Tebow’s Donkeys elite). Yet even though KC was close enough to be in play for a division title entering the last week of the season, to say we were close to good is a serious reach.

Although the Chiefs embarrassed themselves during more than one blow out, the overall scoring defense was actually better than average – it’s the offense that failed us week in and week out. For reference, within the division, only San Diego ended the season scoring more points than their opponents.

Team
Points For
NFL Rank
Points Against
NFL Rank
+/-
NFL Rank
Denver
19.3
25
24.4
24
-5.1
25
Kansas City
13.3
31
21.1
12
-7.8
29
Oakland
22.4
16
27.1
29
-4.7
23
San Diego
25.4
5(t)
23.6
22
1.8
11


Aside from a 28-0 blowout of the Raiders, the largest margin of victory the Kansas City enjoyed in 2011 was an ugly 10-3 win over Chicago. Losses included 7-41 (Bills), 3-48 (Lions), 3-31 (Dolphins), 3-34 (Patriots), and 10-37 (Jets). (The Jets game particularly sticks in my craw as my Christmas present to my father was a ticket to the delightful experience of watching the Chiefs gain four net yards in the first half.) Although we finished 7-9, the club played more like a 6-10 or 5-11 team.

So what does being close to winning a bad division portend for the future? Relying on no statistical basis whatsoever, I believe the return of Eric Berry, Jammal Charles, and Tony Moeaki allows us to score/prevent exactly one touchdown per Sunday, requiring free agent pickups and the draft to bridge the remaining gap that puts KC in positive net scoring territory. It’s likely that replacing Barry Richardson single-handedly gives us that bump. The more the Hillis acquisition is dissected, the better it looks. The wide receiver situation is looking exciting. And the potential pairing of Dallas Clark and Moeaki would literally give Cassel more options than he’s capable of checking down.

It’s tempting to worry that all the optimistic conjecture heading into this season is a little overdone; last season, after all, was a few mediocre wins and some very, very bad losses. Has any team ever made the playoffs after suffering so many 30+ point losses the season before?  I believe this year’s team is a playoff team, but going from 7-9 to 10-6 would be much more than a mere three game improvement – and hopefully compared to the Rams turnaround of 1999. 

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