So one day I'm walking home when three young hooligans push me into an alleyway and rob me, stealing not only my wallet and cell phone but also shoes and shirt. A charitable gentleman, hearing the ruckus while walking by, chases off the rapscallions and offers me $25 in cab fare to get home, along with his shirt to keep warm. Before leaving I offer to take a picture of the man sans shirt, encouraging him to strike a flexing pose to embody the heroism he's displayed. Two days later, that picture surfaces on the internet, and the Chris Lee scandal is on.
The winner of NY-26's special election to replace Lee this month will determine the political fortunes of our President next year. You'll know because the news will say so. Particularly if Kathy Hochul (the Dem candidate) pulls out a victory http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifin a Republican District. I don't think she will, because the DCCR just doesn't seem that interested in plowing resources into the race. But if she does, it will signal that the Tea Party's momentum has slowed, Republicans are having to answer for unpopular policy choices, and the nation is shifting back to Democratic support. This will be true for about a month. Then CNN will stop saying it, and all the impacts promised will be forgotten.
Conversely, if Jane Corwin(R)wins, we will know that America remains a center-right nation and will be voting to keep Republican control of the House and likely the Senate in 2012. This, because Chris Wallace told us so.
I'm pretty dubious of the spillover effect special elections provide regular ones. It may be that public opinion isn't what's important - it's getting donors excited. Everyone loves a winner, because supporting losers is bad for business. That's a valuable lesson the Donald taught me. So show your ability to win in Western NY, and financial support will flow like honey (sweet, but slow and sticky). I'm still dubious.